Monitoring in the lime light

I've written about how good monitoring actually works — clear predictions, alarms that ring when reality differs, and teams going into the world to find out why. This is a nice illustration of all three.

This story begins in 2014, in Kenya. A small team tasked with systemic change in the agriculture sector.

Soil acidity was a serious problem for productivity on smallholder farms. One proven solution is to apply agricultural lime — the spreading of pulverised limestone on the soil. However, when they dug in, the team found that producers of lime products (mining companies) were focussed on industrial and construction markets, paying scant attention to farms. They sensed an opportunity.

A promising start...

The team partnered with Homa Lime Company Ltd, a limestone business. Together, they developed a powdered lime product for agricultural use, and distributed it through local retailers. Sales were encouraging enough for Homa Lime to invest in a small team dedicated to agricultural lime.

...but how to scale?

Success can be a warm place to rest. But the team's theory of change was clear: the goal wasn't to launch a product — it was to reach farmers at scale and their monitoring (conversations with Homa Lime and actual sales data) showed that sales were static. Their prediction hadn't held, and the alarm was ringing!

Why had sales stalled? The team jumped in a car to investigate. A week spent with farmers and the feedback was in:

• The product was dusty, easily blown away by the wind
• Large quantities were required, making transportation costly
• It needed to be applied pre-planting, separately from other inputs, increasing labour costs

The pivot: introducing granulated lime

Armed with this understanding, the team explored alternative forms of lime. They gravitated towards granulated lime — finely ground limestone processed into small granules. It addressed to farmer concerns:

• It isn't blown away by the wind
• It can be micro-dosed, meaning less is needed and reducing transportation costs
• It can be applied during planting, reducing labour

In 2019, the team adjusted their theory (of change) and began researching the commercial case for producing and distributing granulated lime. They then promoted it to potential manufacturers. By 2023, Homa Lime and at least four other firms had launched granulated lime products. In total, 12 firms were marketing 27 lime products of various kinds in Kenya. The team felt sufficiently confident as to exit the market.

The prediction held in the end — just not the first version. That's how it's supposed to work. The alarm rang, the team went to find out why, and they came back with a better theory. Scale followed.